Presidential Approval Ratings: What They Are, Why They Matter, and How They Shape Politics

Image by William White, titled “Architectural Photography of the White House,” available at Unsplash.

Presidential approval ratings serve as a real-time gauge of how the public perceives a sitting president’s performance. These numbers influence re-election chances, policy decisions, and historical legacy, making them one of the most scrutinized aspects of modern politics.

This article will break down everything you need to know about presidential approval ratings, from their history and key influencers to their impact on elections and their reliability.

1. What Is a Presidential Approval Rating?

The systematic measurement of presidential approval began in the late 1930s with the advent of scientific polling methods. George Gallup, a pioneer in public opinion research, introduced the concept of gauging public approval of the president’s performance. The Gallup Poll posed a straightforward question

“Do you approve or disapprove of the way [the president] is handling his job as president?”

The most famous organizations conducting these polls include:

✔ Gallup – One of the oldest and most cited approval rating sources (Gallup Poll)

✔ FiveThirtyEight – Aggregates multiple polls for a broader picture (FiveThirtyEight)

✔ Roper Center – Stores historical polling data (Roper Center)

✔ Pew Research – Known for in-depth political polling (Pew Research)

Approval ratings are usually displayed as percentages, representing the proportion of respondents who approve of the president’s performance.

2. Why Do Approval Ratings Matter?

Presidential approval ratings can make or break a presidency. They affect:

✅ Policy Decisions

• A popular president can pass ambitious policies with congressional support.
• Unpopular presidents struggle to push legislation due to lack of public backing.

✅ Re-Election Chances

• Presidents with ratings above 50% usually win re-election (e.g., Obama in 2012).
• Ratings below 40% suggest re-election struggles (e.g., Trump in 2020).

✅ Party Influence

• A president’s popularity can influence midterm elections, affecting party control in Congress.
• High approval helps build party unity, while low approval sparks internal opposition.

3. Historical Highs and Lows: Key Events and Figures

Approval ratings fluctuate based on major events—wars, economic crises, scandals, or policy wins. Let’s examine some of the biggest peaks and crashes in history.

Presidents with the Highest Approval Ratings

Presidents with the Lowest Approval Ratings

These numbers show how external events and political decisions dramatically affect approval ratings.

History.com Editors. FDR’s Most Famous Speeches and Quotes. History.com.

Throughout history, presidential approval ratings have experienced significant peaks and troughs, often in response to pivotal events:

• Franklin D. Roosevelt: As the first president to be systematically polled, Roosevelt enjoyed high approval ratings during the Great Depression and World War II, reflecting public confidence in his leadership during crises.
• Harry S. Truman: Truman’s approval rating soared to 87% in June 1945 following the end of World War II in Europe. However, it plummeted to 22% by 1952 amid the Korean War and domestic challenges.
• John F. Kennedy: Kennedy maintained consistently high approval ratings, peaking at 83% in March 1961, bolstered by his charismatic leadership and handling of international crises like the Cuban Missile Crisis.
• Lyndon B. Johnson: Johnson’s approval rating reached 79% in February 1964, following the passage of significant civil rights legislation. However, it declined sharply due to growing opposition to the Vietnam War.
• Richard Nixon: Nixon experienced a significant drop in approval ratings during the Watergate scandal, leading to his resignation in 1974.
• Ronald Reagan: Reagan’s approval ratings fluctuated during his tenure, with a notable dip during the Iran-Contra affair. However, he left office with a high approval rating, reflecting public appreciation for his leadership during the Cold War’s final years.
• George H. W. Bush: Bush’s approval rating peaked at 89% in February 1991 following the successful Gulf War but declined to 29% by 1992 due to economic concerns.
• Bill Clinton: Despite facing impeachment, Clinton maintained high approval ratings, ending his presidency at 66% in January 2001, attributed to a strong economy and effective communication.
• George W. Bush: Bush’s approval rating reached 90% in September 2001 after the 9/11 attacks, the highest in Gallup’s history. However, it declined to 25% by 2008 amid prolonged conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan and the financial crisis.
• Barack Obama: Obama’s approval ratings fluctuated, starting at 67% in January 2009, dipping during the midterms, and rising again to 55% by January 2017, reflecting public response to his policies and leadership style.
• Donald Trump: Trump’s approval ratings remained relatively stable yet polarized, peaking at 49% in early 2020 and ending his term at 34% in January 2021.
• Joe Biden: Biden’s approval rating started at 57% in February 2021 but faced declines amid challenges such as the COVID-19 pandemic and economic concerns.

4. What Factors Affect Approval Ratings?

A president’s approval rating isn’t random. Specific events and circumstances drive it.

1. The Economy

“It’s the economy, stupid.” – James Carville, Clinton strategist

Public perception of the economy plays a crucial role. Prosperous times often lead to higher approval, while recessions can cause declines. For instance, George H. W. Bush’s post-Gulf War approval surge was followed by a steep decline due to economic downturns.

• Booming economies → Higher approval (e.g., Clinton’s 66% final approval rating)
• Recessions, inflation, high unemployment → Lower approval (e.g., Carter’s 34% in 1980)
• Research from the University of Illinois confirms that GDP growth and unemployment rates have a direct correlation with approval ratings (UIC Study).

2. Foreign Policy & War

International events, such as wars or diplomatic achievements, significantly impact approval ratings. The rally-around-the-flag effect often boosts ratings during crises, as seen with George W. Bush post-9/11.

• Successful wars/diplomatic wins → Higher ratings (e.g., Bush Sr. after Gulf War)
• Prolonged wars, failures → Lower ratings (e.g., Vietnam War and Johnson)

3. Scandals and Corruption

Allegations of misconduct can severely damage approval ratings. Richard Nixon’s involvement in Watergate led to a dramatic decline in public support and his eventual resignation.

• Watergate (Nixon) – Approval collapsed from 67% to 24%
• Clinton’s impeachment – Personal scandal, but economy kept ratings above 60%

4. Media & Public Perception

A president’s ability to communicate effectively and connect with the public influences approval. Ronald Reagan, known as the “Great Communicator,” maintained high ratings through persuasive speeches and a charismatic persona.

• TV debates, speeches, social media presence impact public sentiment.
• Reagan, Obama, and Trump used strong communication skills to influence ratings.

5. How Do Approval Ratings Influence Elections?

Approval ratings play a crucial role in election outcomes.

✅ Winning Presidents Had High Approval

• Barack Obama (2012) – ~51% rating → Won re-election
• Ronald Reagan (1984) – ~58% rating → Landslide victory

❌ Losing Presidents Had Low Approval

• George H.W. Bush (1992) – 38% → Lost to Clinton
• Donald Trump (2020) – 41% → Lost to Biden

Trump’s 2024 Win: A Break in the Pattern?

Despite low approval ratings, Donald Trump won the 2024 election, highlighting a growing partisan divide in U.S. politics. The Brookings Institution analyzed how Trump’s approval ratings remained historically low but didn’t stop his comeback victory (Brookings Report).

6. Are Approval Ratings Always Accurate?

✔ Strengths

• Show real-time public sentiment
• Useful for predicting election trends

❌ Weaknesses

• Poll bias (sample sizes, methodology differences)
• People lie in polls (e.g., “shy Trump voters”)
• Rapid changes (ratings can swing quickly after major events)

For accurate ratings, use non-partisan sources like Gallup, Pew Research, and Roper Center.

7. What Does the Future Hold for Presidential Approval Ratings?

📉 Will ratings continue to polarize along party lines?

📈 Will social media impact approval more than traditional polling?

🏛 Will approval ratings still predict elections accurately?

Approval ratings will remain a key metric, but their influence may change as voter behavior evolves.

Conclusion: Why Approval Ratings Matter

Pesidential approval ratings are a powerful reflection of public sentiment. They can:

✅ Make or break re-election chances

✅ Influence policy success

✅ Shape presidential legacies

Presidential approval ratings are more than just numbers—they shape elections, dictate political strategy, and cement historical reputations. Whether influenced by economic trends, foreign policy decisions, or political scandals, approval ratings remain one of the most powerful tools in modern political analysis.

References:

• Gallup – Presidential Approval Ratings
• Whanchoi (UIC Study) – Presidential Approval and Macroeconomic Conditions
• Roper Center – Presidential Approval Highs & Lows
• Brookings Institution – Trump’s Re-Election & Approval Ratings