Trump vs. Harris - Who Will Win the 2024 Presidential Election?

Trump vs. Harris - Who Will Win the 2024 Presidential Election?

Last Updated on: 10th August 2024, 11:01 am

In a heated presidential race, the future American leader will either be former President Donald Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris. These are the two candidates who will undoubtedly face off against one another in the general election. 

Their preferred policies and visions for the nation could not be more opposed to one another; however, it is ultimately the American people who will have the final say of which candidate becomes the 47th president of this nation. 

Trump, on the GOP side, has already been nominated by his party. Harris, on the other hand, recently garnered more than the needed delegates to win the Democratic Party’s nomination. Democrats hold their convention in less than a month, making the current vice president the de facto nominee of her party. 

For months, Americans have been wondering who will win the 2024 presidential election. Though the race took an abrupt and somewhat unexpected turn on July 21, when President Biden announced he would suspend his run for reelection. During this reveal, Biden also endorsed Harris, who’s seen Democrats quickly line up behind her. 

Background on Trump and Harris: political careers, achievements, and popularity

During the 2016 presidential election, Trump made his foray into our nation’s political world. A huge part of Trump’s appeal to supporters was his outsider status. Trump voters also found it refreshing to have the future American leader not be someone who’s beholden to various special interest groups. 

Harris, on the other hand, has an extensive record in politics. Before serving as vice president, she worked as a prosecutor, attorney general, district attorney, and senator. Harris, now running for the White House, repeatedly leans on her political experience, painting it as an asset. 

US election polls currently show that Trump remains quite popular with Republicans, while Harris’ popularity amongst Democrats is steadily rising. If this current trajectory continues, then the race will be largely influenced by crossover support and whether or not third-party candidates like RFK Jr. end up siphoning more votes from the left or the right. 

Comparison of their policies, ideologies, and poll numbers 

On issues like healthcare, immigration, and the economy, Harris and Trump are quite different. Whichever one becomes the future American leader will take this country in a different direction than the other would have chosen. 

The vice president remains deeply supportive of policies like Obamacare, a pathway to citizenship for certain migrants, and higher business taxes. Trump, on the other hand, has called to slash Obamacare, deport migrants who illegally entered America, and lower taxes on large companies. 

Who will win the 2024 presidential election? Ultimately, that will depend upon which candidate manages to convince a majority of Americans that either left-wing or right-wing policies are best. 

US election polls for Harris vs. Trump are very close right now. As things currently stand, the polls show the vice president and former president as neck-in-neck with one another. In certain comparisons, Harris leads by a few points, whereas other matchups show Trump with a slight lead. 

One thing we can all be sure of is this presidential election (2024) will be a very close race. Every vote for the future American leader is going to count big time. 

Factors that could influence the 2024 election

As we ask ourselves who will win the 2024 presidential election, it’s important to remember that many factors will influence the outcome. Whichever candidate wins the race this November will have to appeal to a variety of voters. This means not just winning over the GOP or Democratic base, but also seeing strong support from Independents, swing voters, and moderates. 

Between now and November, more US election polls will undoubtedly provide insight into whether Harris or Trump is making the greatest inroads with these demographics. Already, the vice president’s campaign has formally stated that it’s open to support from anti-Trump Republicans who didn’t back him in the GOP primary. 

The next several months will likewise see Trump and Harris discussing issues like the economy, healthcare, foreign policy, and national security concerns. 

Potential challenges and obstacles for both candidates

Who will win the 2024 presidential election? Much of this will depend upon which candidate manages to overcome certain roadblocks they face in this election. For Trump, that could mean winning back voters who’ve left the Republican Party. For Harris, she may need to address certain concerns about her record and the policies she’d support as president. 

Today, our nation’s political landscape is quite divided. Whichever White House contender becomes the future American leader, they will need a comprehensive plan to unify this nation and bring people together again.

The vice president’s campaign is currently telling voters that if Trump returns to the Oval Office, he will further divide this nation. Meanwhile, the former president insists that a Harris administration would be disastrous policy-wise and put Americans against one another.

The importance of voter turnout and engagement

Voter turnout and engagement will matter a great deal. As the nation wonders who will win the 2024 presidential election, the answer boils down to whether voters in favor of Harris or Trump see the most turnout. 

Today, Democrats and Republicans are each putting in the work to get their candidate across the finish line. Part of this involves running various ads that highlight the strong suits of their own side, while magnifying the weaknesses of the opposition. 

Trump and Harris are also holding different political rallies across the nation. These events encourage supporters to make their voices heard, while also giving each candidate a platform to connect with the country at large. 

Americans, regardless of their political leanings, can expect to see a lot more of both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump on the campaign trails. Both of these presidential hopefuls will be working to secure as many votes as possible. 

At Harris rallies, it’s very likely that big-name Democrats will also make appearances to rally support. The same can also be said for high-profile Republicans who will be eager to get as many Trump voters to the polls as possible.

Economic and International Factors

  • Economic Conditions and Voter Sentiment
    • Recent surveys show that economic performance is a crucial factor for voters, with inflation and the cost of living being top concerns​.
    • The state of the economy under previous administrations plays a significant role, with many voters comparing the current economic conditions to those during Trump’s presidency, where a higher percentage of voters felt the economy was in good condition​.
  • Impact of International Events
    • Trump’s foreign policy, particularly his stances on trade and tariffs, is a significant point of discussion. His protectionist policies, including high tariffs on imports from China, have been controversial. These policies are seen as potentially harmful to international trade but appealing to voters concerned about domestic manufacturing​.
    • The ongoing geopolitical tensions, such as the war in Ukraine, are also in focus. Trump has suggested he could quickly end the conflict, which may influence voters concerned about international stability​.
  • Market Predictions and Economic Forecasts
    • Economic indicators and market trends currently suggest a possible advantage for the GOP, with slowing economic growth potentially disadvantaging the Democrats as the election approaches.
    • Historical data from election years shows that economic downturns and recovery rates are closely watched by voters and can heavily influence election outcomes​.
  • Potential Impact of Economic Policies
    • The candidates’ differing economic policies will likely be a decisive factor for many voters. Issues such as tax policies, healthcare costs, and regulatory approaches to industries will directly impact voters’ lives and choices at the polls​.

This outline provides a structured look at how economic issues and international relations are shaping the narratives of the 2024 presidential election and highlights the potential influences on voter decisions.

Historical Election Comparisons: Learning from the Past

The 2024 presidential campaign, while unique in its context and candidates, echoes past elections in several ways. By analyzing historical surprises and outcomes, we can glean insights into the potential dynamics and unpredictabilities of the upcoming election.

  • Unpredictable Outcomes: The 1948 election remains a prime example of polling errors and electoral surprises. Despite facing significant internal party divisions and a challenging economic environment, Harry Truman managed a stunning victory against Thomas Dewey, who was widely expected to win. This election demonstrated that aggressive campaigning and connecting directly with voters could overturn expected outcomes, despite polling to the contrary​.
  • Populist Movements: Donald Trump’s 2016 victory is another critical example of electoral unpredictability. Trump, a candidate without prior political office experience, leveraged a populist message that resonated with significant segments of the electorate, particularly in key battleground states. His campaign strategy capitalized on voters’ dissatisfaction with the status quo and the political establishment, leading to one of the biggest upsets in U.S. electoral history​.
  • Narrow Margins and Convention Dynamics: The 1880 election showcased the impact of convention dynamics and narrow vote margins. James Garfield, who was not an initial frontrunner, emerged as the Republican nominee after a contested convention and went on to win the presidency by one of the smallest popular vote margins in history. This highlights the potential for unexpected candidates to emerge from contentious conventions and win narrowly in the general election​.

These historical comparisons underline the critical lessons that voter sentiment can defy expectations and that internal party dynamics, as well as direct voter engagement, are crucial. They remind us that in presidential elections, the expected outcome can often be upended by unforeseen voter shifts and campaign strategies.

  1. When is the 2024 Presidential Election?
    • The 2024 U.S. Presidential Election will take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024. This date follows the U.S. tradition of holding federal elections on the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November, a practice established to avoid conflicts with Sunday church services and Wednesday market days in the 19th century.
  2. Who are the main candidates for the 2024 Presidential Election?
    • The major candidates for the 2024 Presidential Election are former President Donald Trump representing the Republican Party and Vice President Kamala Harris representing the Democratic Party. Each candidate brings a significant political background and distinct policy agendas, reflecting the polarized nature of current American politics.
  3. What are the key issues in the 2024 election?
    • The 2024 election centers around several pivotal issues:
      • Economy: Including concerns about inflation, employment rates, and trade policies.
      • Healthcare: Debates over the Affordable Care Act, Medicare, and public health readiness.
      • Climate Change: Discussions on environmental policies and the U.S.’s role in global environmental agreements.
      • Immigration: Policies on border security and pathways to citizenship.
      • National Security: Focus on cybersecurity, terrorism, and international alliances. These issues are crucial for shaping the platforms of the competing candidates and are central to voter decision-making processes.
  4. How does the Electoral College work?
    • The Electoral College is a body of electors established by the Constitution of the United States, formulated to provide a compromise between the election of the President by a vote in Congress and election by popular vote of qualified citizens. Each state gets as many electors as it has members in the U.S. Congress (House and Senate combined). To win the presidency, a candidate must receive a majority of electoral votes, which is 270 out of 538. If no candidate achieves this majority, the House of Representatives elects the President from the three Presidential candidates who received the most electoral votes.
  5. Can voters cast their ballots before Election Day?
    • Yes, voters can participate in the election before the official Election Day through early voting and absentee/mail-in ballots, which are methods that have been expanded in many states to increase voter participation and accommodate those who may not be able to vote in person. Early voting periods and absentee ballot procedures vary by state, so voters need to consult their local election offices for specific rules.
  6. What changes are there in voting procedures for 2024?
    • For the 2024 election, several states are considering changes in voting procedures, such as the adoption of new voting technologies or alterations in the vote-counting process. For example, there’s ongoing debate about the efficiency and reliability of electronic versus hand counting of votes. Such changes are scrutinized for their potential to affect the transparency and trust in the electoral process.
  7. How accurate are election polls?
    • While polls provide useful insights into potential election outcomes, their accuracy can vary based on the methodology, sample size, and timing. The 2016 and 2020 elections highlighted some of the limitations of polling, particularly in predicting state-level outcomes in key battlegrounds. Pollsters have since adjusted their methods to better account for factors such as educational attainment and geographic diversity.
  8. What happens if no candidate wins a majority of the Electoral College?
    • If no presidential candidate wins a majority of the electoral votes, the election for the President is decided in the House of Representatives, with each state delegation having one vote. This situation is rare, with the last occurrence in 1824. The Senate would elect the Vice President from the two Vice Presidential candidates with the most electoral votes.
  9. Are there any third-party candidates?
    • Third-party and independent candidates also run in U.S. Presidential elections, though they typically face significant challenges such as lower visibility, less funding, and difficulties in meeting ballot access requirements. Notable third-party runs in past elections include those by Gary Johnson in 2016 and Ross Perot in the 1990s.
  10. When are the electoral votes counted and the winner declared?
    • Electoral votes are officially counted before a Joint Session of Congress on January 6 following the election. This count confirms the outcome of the Electoral College vote, and barring any objections or complications, the results are certified, and the winner is officially declared, paving the way for the inauguration on January 20.



Gabrielle Seunagal
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